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E-Business Secrets
Brian Livingston
Online holiday shopping may not be so jolly, after all

Conflicting reports claim to show both that holiday Web shopping this year will be higher than ever and that consumers are not planning to purchase as much online.

Nielsen/NetRatings and Harris Interactive report in their study of 35,000 Internet users that U.S. consumers will spend a new high of $9.9 billion this December. That's a projected 43 percent increase from $6.9 billion in the comparable period last year, the researchers say.

Sales of apparel will pull in the largest share of e-commerce with estimated revenue of almost $2.5 billion this November and December, according to the report. Books, music, and videos will pull in $1.7 billion, with online auctions totaling more than $1.3 billion.

The GartnerG2 research group expects holiday sales worldwide to increase 39 percent over 2000 to a new high of $25.3 billion. The group estimates that, for the first time, more than half of this year's online holiday sales (53 percent) will occur outside the United States, mostly in Europe, Japan, and the rest of Asia.

Meanwhile, a cautionary note is sounded in a report by Odyssey, a market research firm. Its survey of 3,000 households, representative of all U.S. shoppers, shows that of those who purchased something online in the first half of the year, the number who are "likely" to do so again dropped from 71 percent a year ago to 54 percent today.

In a separate portion of the study conducted by research group Vividence, one of the biggest barriers to e-commerce -- customers abandoning full shopping carts just before paying for them -- was analyzed for patterns. The responses by consumers (more than one reason could be given) suggest that Web-based retailers should clarify their shipping costs as early as possible to avoid surprising customers at the last minute and scrutinize their checkout procedures to make them as short and simple as possible.

REASONS GIVEN FOR ABANDONING ONLINE SHOPPING CARTS

72% High shipping prices

61% Comparison shopping or browsing

56% Changed mind

51% Saving items for later purchase

43% Total cost of items is too high

41% Checkout process is too long

35% Checkout requires too much personal information

34% Site requires registration before purchase

31% Site is unstable or unreliable

27% Checkout process is confusing

A possible explanation for the discrepancy between the more optimistic studies and those by Odyssey is that the former surveys only e-commerce shoppers, while the latter surveys a sampling of all consumers.

Most indicators show that, despite a lack of consumer confidence in the United States and elsewhere, e-commerce continues to grow. Entrepreneurs who are planning for the holiday season, however, may want to avoid overstuffing their stocking in case consumers don't buy as much as retailers would like to hope.

NIELSEN/NETRATINGS AND HARRIS INTERACTIVE SEE RECORDS:

http://www.internetnews.com@836.as/?4e42

ODYSSEY WARNS THAT CONSUMERS MAY REDUCE ONLINE BUYING:

http://cyberatlas.internet.com@a2.tc/?61ca

See also my News Picks #1 and #2 for more on this topic.

E-BUSINESS TECHNOLOGY REVIEW: INSTANT MESSAGING PHONES

With millions of people taking advantage of instant messaging, it was only a matter of time before someone built IM into a cell phone so you can chat online with your buddy group without being anywhere near a PC.

America Online has done just that with its introduction of the Nokia 3390, a gold-colored phone that retails for $70 with the activation of VoiceStream cellular service. Included in a typical $30/month mobile phone package will be 500 free AOL IM messages per month (using the well-established Short Message Service format). There's a 5-cent charge for each message above the free supply.

A nice synergy has evolved between phone and PC: If you start a chat on the phone and then log on to AOL Instant Messaging from your computer, the exchange is switched to the computer without the recipient noticing any difference.

Microsoft and other vendors are certain to come up with offerings of their own in due time.

AOL INSTANT MESSAGING ON THE NOKIA 3390 CELL PHONE:

http://www.cnn.com@54.vg/?7552

LIVINGSTON'S TOP 10 NEWS PICKS O' THE WEEK

1. Conflicting holiday projections vex e-tailers

http://www.wirelessnewsfactor.com@5a0.tc/?40a

2. Inefficient Web marketing causes consumer turnoffs

http://www.clickz.com@th.gs/?7f2

3. Delta sells 65 percent more tickets online this year

http://www.wstonline.com@a2.tc/?bda

4. European Union may ban "hate speech" on Web sites

http://news.cnet.com@e.la/?fc2

5. Majority of dial-up users see broadband as unneeded

http://www.parksassociates.com@31.dk/?13aa

6. E-commerce sites will start going public again soon

http://www.ecommercetimes.com@836.as/?1792

7. Make money selling stuff from dead Web businesses

http://www.wired.com@a6r.ms/?1b7a

8. Actually interesting Flash: See your skeleton dance

http://www.vectorlounge.com@a2.tc/?1f62

9. Is it real or...? Spotting fake photos on Web sites

http://www.fakeorfoto.com@54.vg/?234a

10. News travels fast: Record for world's longest tongue

http://news.bbc.co.uk@1c.to/?2732

E-BUSINESS SECRETS: Our mission is to bring you such useful and thought-provoking information about the Web that you actually look forward to reading your e-mail.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR: E-Business Secrets is written by InfoWorld Contributing Editor Brian Livingston. Research director is Ben Livingston (no relation). Brian has published 10 books, including:

Windows Me Secrets:

http://www.amazon.com@54.vg/?0764534939

Windows 2000 Secrets:

http://www.amazon.com@54.vg/?0764534130

Win a book free if you're the first to send a tip Brian prints: mailto:tips@SecretsPro.com


Brian Livingston , an InfoWorld contributing editor, has published 10 books, including Windows Me Secrets and Windows 2000 Secrets. Win a book free if you're the first to send a tip Brian prints. Send in your tips today, at tips@secretspro.com.



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